We experienced considerable seasonal price weakness this summer but our forecast this month is for this weakness to end and be reversed over the coming 30 days.

Each month about this time we look back at the previous month, analyze how pricing has behaved and report on how well our forecasting techniques performed. We also give a forecast for how pricing will move over the next 30 days.

For the monthly period ending September 15, we are currently recording a sales $/SF of $132.42 averaged for all areas and types across the ARMLS database. This is 0.1% below the $132.53 we now measure for August 15. Our forecast range was $128.92 to $134.18 with a mid-point of $131.55. Last month’s mid-point forecast within 87c of the actual price per square foot measured and well within the 90% confidence interval.

On September 15 the pending listings for all areas & types showed an average list $/SF of $137.84, 1.8% above the reading for August 15. Among those pending listings we have 87.2% normal, 4.7% in REOs and 8.1% in short sales and pre-foreclosures.

Our mid-point forecast for the average monthly sales $/SF on October 15 is $134.68, which is 1.7% higher than the September 15 reading. We have a 90% confidence that it will fall within ± 2% of this mid point, i.e. in the range $131.99 to $137.37.

— The Cromford Report

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